Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 06 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 08 2026

...Heavy rainfall threat gradually edges off the Gulf Coast as showers and
storms persist in Florida...

...An October heatwave will remain across central and southern California
into this week...

...Autumnal chill overspreading the Great Lakes and Northeast behind a
cold front...

A frontal boundary responsible for the recent wet weather pattern along
the Gulf Coast region continues to slowly edge farther offshore. While the
heavy rain threat has moved just off the Gulf Coast, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to bring a marginal threat of excessive
rainfall and isolated flash flooding risk across northern and central
Florida for the next couple of days. Expect rainfall amounts of an inch or
more across this region each day in a soggy weather pattern for the next
few days.

An anomalous upper-level ridge of high pressure remains in control across
much of the West into the northern Plains, providing plenty of anomalous
warmth. The forecast remains consistent with no change in hazardous heat
messaging for the California heatwave. Temperatures will run 15 to 20
degrees above normal, bringing highs well into the 90s toward the coast
and adjacent urban areas, with some areas in the Central Valley of
California soaring into the lower 100s. Overnight lows in the mid to upper
70s in the Los Angeles and San Diego urban areas will provide little
relief through the heatwave. Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for
portions of Southern California and the interior deserts, while Heat
Advisories extend across the Central Valley and Bay Area. A piece of this
warm air mass is spreading northeastward across the Great Basin into the
northern Rockies where high temperatures in the middle and upper
80s--around 10 to 20 degrees above average--will challenge some daily
high temperature records. There will also be a chance for isolated
thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday across the Great Basin and Four
Corners region as a weak upper-level low progresses through the area.

In contrast to the summer-like heat across the West, a high pressure
system has overspread the Midwest and Northeast with a cool and dry
autumnal air mass.  High temperatures in the low 70s to middle 60s are
forecast for the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, with
afternoon temperatures in the 50s likely across New England. Morning low
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the upper 30s to low
40s with some cooler areas dropping into the middle 30s thanks to
efficient radiational cooling in a dry air mass. This is one of the first
cold shots of the fall season and will bring some agricultural risk. Frost
Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect this morning across portions
of New England, the central Appalachians, and lower Michigan. Some showers
and embedded thunderstorms are possible across interior New England early
Thursday morning as a reinforcing cold front from Canada arrives.
Meanwhile, after a brief cool down across portions of the Southeast today,
temperatures will begin to rebound into the 80s for Wednesday and Thursday.

In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center continues to raise the
potential for tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf south
of the tail end of the aforementioned frontal boundary. Some of the
showers and thunderstorms could begin to edge back toward coastal
Louisiana by early Thursday morning as the front begins to lift northward.
Please refer to the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center
regarding this system at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov.


Kong/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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