ACUS11 KWNS 150039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150039 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-150245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Texas into the Texarkana region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 150039Z - 150245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the dryline across eastern
TX may pose a severe risk through the next several hours. Storm
coverage and intensity are uncertain based on recent convective
trends, but conditions will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation have been underway
for the past hour or so along a dryline across eastern TX into the
Texarkana region. A few thunderstorms have managed to develop across
east central TX and are showing signs of slow intensification per IR
and lightning trends. IR imagery along the remainder of the dryline
shows little in the way of imminent convective development; however,
latest guidance continues to hint that additional development is
possible as the dryline gradually drifts east into an moistening air
mass as the primary surface low across KS lifts to the northeast.
The convective environment downstream across eastern TX into
southwest AR/northwest LA (characterized by MLCAPE upwards of
1500-2000 J/kg and 45-55 knots of effective shear) suggests that
robust supercells are possible if cells can sufficiently intensify
to become self-sufficient and mature within the favorable air mass.
Large hail will likely be the primary threat given very favorable
deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates, though a tornado threat
may emerge given 50-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Convective trends will
continue to be monitored for the need for watch issuance if a
sufficiently widespread severe threat materializes.

..Moore/Mosier.. 03/15/2025

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30899533 30549620 30489656 30649673 30859670 31089644
            31699564 32509495 33219452 33659417 33889382 33949338
            33809303 33449284 32959298 32459333 31969371 31569412
            31199466 30899533 

$$
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