203 
FXUS64 KMRX 060645
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
245 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 242 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Dry weather to continue the rest of the week. 

- Temperatures to remain above normal with a gradual warming trend
  each day.

- Tropical development is expected over the Gulf, which may 
  impact the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians this 
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A 1024 mb high is currently centered over Michigan with troughing 
well to the north and weak northwesterly flow moving in from the 
upper ridge out west. The aforementioned surface high will move to 
off of the Mid-Atlantic coast early tomorrow. New surface high 
pressure will shift down from the Upper Plains the latter part of 
the week, keeping precipitation at bay for now.

Temperatures will remain above normal with a gradual warming trend 
each day. When we round out the work week mid to upper 80s are 
forecast from the central to southern valley. The coolest morning of 
the week will be this morning where the upper half of our forecast 
area will see lows in the 40s; 50s for lows for the remainder. 
Though the air is on the drier side, fog near bodies of water is 
still possible.

Our next chance of precipitation will arrive sometime this weekend. 
There are uncertainties as to what and when. As of last night, a 
tropical disturbance with a 80 percent chance of development 
determined by the NHC, will drift towards the central northern Gulf. 
Deterministic models have great differences in what they think will 
occur. If one thing's certain is that our area will see rain lifting 
up from the south Saturday and possibly into Monday. Some gusty 
winds, most likely from a strong pressure gradient, could be 
possible and of course will be monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail for 6Z TAF cycle. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  56  85  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  55  82  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  54  82  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


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