480 
FXUS64 KMRX 061828
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Dry weather to continue the rest of the week. 

- Temperatures to remain above normal with a gradual warming trend 
each day. 

- Tropical development is expected over the Gulf which may impact 
the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians this 
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Dry northwest flow aloft (PWs from 0.6 through 0.9 inches) and 
surface ridging will be the main weather features through Friday. A 
dry and weak frontal boundary will move across the region late 
Thursday. Areas of patchy fog is possible near area waterways almost 
each night. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. 

For this weekend into early next week, an upper trough over Texas 
will pull tropical moisture northeastward. NHC still favors tropical 
depression development with a 90 percent chance of formation over 
the next couple of days. 

A good deal of uncertainty of the strength of low pressure 
development and path. Latest tropical advisories indicates a near 
100 percent chance of depressions within the next 48 hours. Latest 
GEFS tracks suggest a track into the Tennessee valley or southern 
Appalachians over the weekend.  Given the tropical-like moisture 
some locally heavy rainfall is possible. 

Also, depending on surface low track and expected surface wedge east 
of the Appalachians, tightening pressure gradients could produce 
strong and gusty winds especially over the far east Tennessee 
mountains and foothills. Currently, the greatest threat of strong 
winds will be late Saturday through Sunday morning. 

This system will move east of the area by late Monday with upper 
ridging building into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians 
for Tuesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

An area of FEW to SCT diurnal Cu have formed in the southern
valley area with little to no impact to aviation expected. VFR
throughout at all sites forecast. The one caveat is that there
could be some low stratus to develop again overnight, but 
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. Winds will 
be light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  84  57  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  53  82  56  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       53  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...BH


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