Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 AM EDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 07 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 09 2026

...The ongoing October heatwave across central and southern California
begins to show signs of letting up by Friday...

...Watching the future progress of Tropical Storm Isaias in the Gulf as
lingering heavy rainfall and isolated flood threats in Florida begin to
move north later on Thursday...

An increasingly active weather pattern is in store heading into the latter
half of the week as tropical activity ramps up and gets caught amid major
changes in the upper-air pattern in the mid-latitudes. First of all, the
October heatwave continues today across portions of California and the
Desert Southwest, where temperatures remain 15-20 degrees above average
with highs reaching into the 90s to low 100s, with overnight lows in the
mid- to upper 70s providing little relief from the heat. Major to locally
Extreme HeatRisk means that the heat is dangerous to anyone without
adequate cooling or hydration where Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat
Warnings remain in effect. Temperatures are expected to gradually cool for
coastal California Thursday and then interior areas by Friday so some
relief from the heat is in sight. While not dangerously hot, conditions
across the western to central U.S. remain well above average for October
with widespread highs in the 70s and 80s. Some daily record highs will be
challenged or broken. On the other hand, conditions remain cooler and
below average along the East Coast and particularly for the Northeast.
Frost and Freeze related Advisories and Warnings are in place for portions
of New England into northeastern Pennsylvania early this morning.
Temperatures will moderate quite a bit over the next couple of days with
much warmer highs into the 70s expected for most locations by Thursday,
while a brief intrusion of cool air reaches interior New England by Friday.

Meanwhile, tropical moisture interacting with a quasi-stationary boundary
through Florida will continue to lead to widespread thunderstorms across
most of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Panhandle into coastal
southeastern Georgia through the next couple of days. This occurs as
Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to intensify over the southwestern Gulf
and begin tracking toward the central portion of the Gulf Coast region.
Locally heavy downpours across northern to central Florida could lead to a
few inches of rain daily, with isolated flooding or ponding possible,
particularly in urban areas. Heavy rainfall lurking just off the Gulf
Coast will begin progressing northward Thursday night as Tropical Storm
Isaias is forecast to turn toward a more northerly direction, raising the
threat of heavy rain reaching the Florida Panhandle by Friday morning.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the latest
forecast updates on this system at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov. The Weather
Prediction Center will continue to collaborate with NHC on the rainfall
aspects of T.S. Isaias. Otherwise, the rest of the country will be mostly
dry through mid-week with only some widely scattered showers expected over
the central Rockies/Four Corners region, and from the upper Great Lakes to
northern New England today as a frontal system moves through. Some showers
will begin to develop over the north-central Plains by early Friday
morning as a low-pressure system develops on the lee side of the northern
Rockies.


Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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