069 
FXUS64 KMRX 070717
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
317 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 311 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Dry weather is expected through Friday with daytime highs rising
  well into the 70s and 80s. 

- Tropical development is expected in the Gulf, leading to a
  return of rain and potential mountain winds this weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Currently, troughing is centered to our east with a jet stream to 
our south. Surface high pressure is also centered just to our east. 
Tropical Depression 9 is also just east of Mexico. This will 
continue to promote dry and seasonally cool temperatures into the 
morning. Temperatures will warm well into the 70s to low 80s through 
the day as eastward progression of high pressure increases southerly 
flow. Based on the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast, 
T.D. 9 is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaias and 
track northeast into the central Gulf through the day. By Thursday, 
height rises are expected as troughing lifts to the northeast, 
promoting even warmer temperatures well into the 80s. It is during 
this time, hurricane strength is forecast by the NHC and model 
guidance, along with a more northerly shift in the track. Heading 
into Friday, hurricane strength is still anticipated with a landfall 
near or east of New Orleans by Friday night. With the upper jet 
remaining just to the north, increasing shear has been noted, adding 
to weakening but an increase in track speed. Locally, warm and dry 
conditions will remain with a shift to northeasterly winds for 
Friday. 

The weekend will be when our region sees impacts from the remnants 
of the tropical system as a track to our west is forecast on 
Saturday. At this time range, there is still considerable 
uncertainty in the track and degree of weakening due to shear. 
However, the most likely impact in our area will be the first 
potential mountain wave event of the season. With high pressure to
our northeast, a strong MSLP gradient is likely, along with 
strong southeasterly 850mb winds. While rain is expected with this
system, a track of this nature would certainly limit totals while
potentially producing warning-level winds in the mountains and 
foothills Saturday night. It should be noted that some guidance 
forecast a more easterly and/or weaker track, which would limit 
mountain wave potential. Regardless, rainfall chances and overall 
impacts will decrease by Sunday into early next week as the 
remnants dissipate and move away from the region. Based on current
trends, similar messaging will be maintained in the HWO. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Main concern this morning will be potential for some fog or low
cloud development at TYS. Latest HREF probs show about a 30-40%
chance for MVFR or lower conditions, thus, have included a brief 
tempo for this. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will be
predominant at all sites for the majority of the cycle. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  57  87  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  56  84  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  54  80  51 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS


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