ACUS11 KWNS 152318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152318=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...southern Mississippi into central and southern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 46...

Valid 152318Z - 160215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 46 continues.

SUMMARY...The environment remains quite favorable for strong
tornadoes, but will depend on storm mode going into the evening and
early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Supercells moving out of eastern MS have transitioned
into more of a small MCS this evening, from west-central AL into
parts of eastern MS. Farther south, more discrete cell mode was
noted across far southern MS to the LA border.

While storm mode is currently a bit disorganized, shear, moisture
and instability all remain favorable for conditionally strong
tornadoes at any point this evening and through early morning. In
addition, dewpoints and thus instability will also increase across
the remainder of eastern AL and toward GA late tonight as the
low-level jet persists. It is possible that reorganization may take
place later this evening as we transition out of the daytime/diurnal
regime. Any robust, discrete cells will have a high conditional risk
of being tornadic supercells. Any linear structures may still
produce tornadoes and swaths of damaging wind as well as effective
SRH remains at or above 500 m2/s2.

..Jewell.. 03/15/2025

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30318979 30628951 31458910 31998846 32308814 32658781
            32878771 33188745 33408693 33428620 33228596 32858582
            32268597 31668640 31168676 30288732 30068936 30318979
            
$$

ACUS11 KWNS 152321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152321=20
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...Northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 47...48...

Valid 152321Z - 160115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47, 48 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and severe gusts continues across
northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, convection across
north-central AL has struggled to maintain intensity as it migrates
into a deeply saturated, rain cooled environment. Recent surface
observations depict a rather pronounced surface warm front extending
across northern AL that delineates the northern extent of
appreciable surface-based buoyancy. Despite the thermodynamic
challenges, the low to mid-level theta-e axis remains in place
across north-central AL. Strong isentropic ascent within this regime
continues to support very strongly veered hodographs within the
lowest few kilometers, exemplified by KBMX and KHTX VWP observations
featuring 0-1 km SRH on the order of 400-500 m2/s2. Additionally,
GOES IR imagery and lightning data have shown occasional updraft
pulses within this warm advection regime and embedded supercell
structures within a broken line of storms across eastern Middle TN
which hint that buoyancy remains adequate for at least transient
deep convection. Recent WoFS guidance appears to support this idea
with some signal for low-level helicity tracks and severe gust
potential focused across northeast AL into eastern/southeastern TN
between 23-02 UTC.

..Moore.. 03/15/2025

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   36448458 36358426 36238405 36008403 35768410 35398424
            34828464 34328519 33988567 33828612 33788666 33788710
            33898744 34098791 34288816 34648816 34758804 34888784
            34908761 34888726 34878657 34928619 35038590 35248565
            35548543 35928525 36378488 36448458
            
$$
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