Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 08 2026 - 00Z Sat Oct 10 2026

...October heatwave continues across central and southern California shows
sign of relief by Friday...

...Watching the future progress of Tropical Storm Isaias in the Gulf as
lingering heavy rainfall and isolated flood threats in Florida begin to
move north later on Thursday...

An intense October heatwave continues across portions of California and
the Desert Southwest, where temperatures remain 15 to 20 degrees above
average with highs reaching into the 90s to low 100s and overnight lows in
the mid to upper 70s providing little relief. Major to locally extreme
HeatRisk means the heat is dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling or
hydration. Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect
until temperatures gradually cool for coastal California on Thursday and
interior areas by Friday. While not dangerously hot, conditions across the
western to central United States remain well above average for October,
with widespread highs in the 70s and 80s challenging or breaking some
daily record highs. On the other hand, conditions remain cooler and below
average along the East Coast and particularly for the Northeast, though
temperatures will moderate quite a bit over the next couple of days with
much warmer highs into the 70s expected for most locations by Thursday,
followed by a brief intrusion of cool air reaching interior New England by
Friday.

Across the Florida Peninsula, widespread thunderstorms will persist over
the next couple of days as tropical moisture interacts with a stationary
boundary. Concurrently, Tropical Storm Isaias is projected to strengthen
over the southwestern Gulf and track toward the central Gulf Coast region.
This setup could bring daily accumulations of a few inches of rain to
northern and central Florida, leading to isolated flooding and ponding in
urban areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlined a marginal
risk threat today (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for central
Florida. By Thursday night, heavy rainfall just off the Gulf Coast will
begin shifting northward as Isaias takes a northerly trajectory, elevating
the risk of heavy downpours in the Florida Panhandle by Friday morning.
For this reason, WPC has outlined a moderate risk threat on Friday (level
3 of 4) for excessive rainfall for the Florida Panhandle and the Gulf
Shores of Alabama.

Because of these developments, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has
issued a hurricane watch for portions of the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf
coasts as well as the western Florida Panhandle, while a tropical storm
watch covers extreme eastern Louisiana and parts of the Florida Panhandle
near the Big Bend region. For the latest official updates, consult the
National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov, while the Weather
Prediction Center maintains its collaboration on the system's heavy rain
potential. Elsewhere nationwide, conditions will continue to stay mostly
dry through late-week, except for some scattered showers across the
central Rockies and the Four Corners, and a frontal system crossing the
upper Great Lakes. Lastly, a new round of showers will develop over the
north-central Plains early Friday morning ahead of a low-pressure system
forming along the lee side of northern Rockies.



Green/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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