381 
FXUS64 KMRX 071829
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
229 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Dry weather is expected through Friday with daytime highs rising 
  well into the 70s and 80s. 

- Tropical Storm Isaias will move north into the Tennessee valley this
  weekend. Heavy rains are possible for the Plateau, southeast 
  Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina for Saturday and 
  Saturday night. 

- Strong and gusty winds are likely area-wide for Saturday and
  Saturday night with High Winds over the far east Tennessee
  Mountains and Foothills, and southern Plateau and southeast
  Tennessee. Please refer to the HWO for more details. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Surface and upper ridge for Thursday and Friday producing 
unseasonably warm and dry conditions. Temperatures will be near 10 
degrees above normal.

Main weather message is the developing Tropical Storm Isaias which 
is forecast become a Hurricane before making landfall across the 
central Gulf Coast sometime Friday evening. This storm will move 
quickly north due phasing with an upper trough moving north as well. 
Latest Tropical deterministic and ensemble models are showing path 
forecast converging with a northward movement of the surface low 
into west/middle Tennessee for Saturday. The storm moves quickly 
northeast into the eastern Ohio valley for Sunday.

Given the expected path the expected impacts are as follow for 
Saturday through Sunday morning:

1. Locally heavy rainfall possible beginning Saturday for mainly the 
Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina. 
Downslope winds into the northern and central Tennessee valley will 
limit the QPF elsewhere.

2. Developing high winds for Saturday. Depending on how fast Isaias 
moves north could begin before daybreak across southern Plateau and 
southeast Tennessee. Due to the pressure gradient from surface 
wedging over the Carolinas and Isaias, mountain wave high winds look 
likely for the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills possibly 
in excess of 70 mph.

3. For the rest of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia and southwest 
North Carolina, winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are 
possible. Higher gusts over the southern Plateau and southeast 
Tennessee counties are likely. Higher elevations around the 
Chattanooga area could see gusts by daybreak Saturday in excess of 
60 mph, especially Lookout and Signal mountains. 

For Saturday, instability is quite limited and elevated so severe 
storms are not anticipated.

For Sunday, remnants of Isaias moves north and northeast of the 
region with chance of showers continuing. 

For Monday through Wednesday, upper and surface ridging builds into 
the region with return of sunshine and drier conditions. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A fairly straightforward TAF period. VFR conditions are expected
throughout. A few low stratus and very patchy & thin fog may 
develop close to daybreak, but I do not anticipate any impacts to
the terminals. Winds remain light and variable going nearly calm
overnight. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  88  59  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  56  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  85  55  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...BH


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