ACUS11 KWNS 161349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161349 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-161545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...northeast South Carolina...eastern and central
North Carolina...and southeast Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

Valid 161349Z - 161545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

SUMMARY...Gradual destabilization is occurring across eastern North
Carolina. A downstream tornado watch will eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms, well oriented to the
deep-layer shear vector, is moving across south-central North
Carolina and northern South Carolina. Currently instability is
relatively weak ahead of this line (MLCAPE <250 J/kg). However,
visible satellite shows some breaks in the clouds and temperatures
have already increased 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit across eastern
North Carolina. If temperatures warm into the low 70s with the
presence of low to mid 60s dewpoints already in place, sufficient
instability should develop to maintain and perhaps strengthen this
line of storms at is moves east through the morning and into the
early afternoon. If weak destabilization occurs as current
observational trends suggest, a downstream tornado watch will
eventually be needed across eastern North Carolina and southeast
Virginia.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

LAT...LON   33267915 33667981 34458008 35458019 36237999 36807956
            37357866 37517774 37447666 37217623 37027595 36617578
            36247566 35927550 35647540 35327544 35187551 35077590
            34707634 34527653 34627675 34597709 34287762 34067778
            33747792 33857828 33687874 33267915 

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)