840 
FXUS64 KMRX 080648
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will impact the region Saturday
  through Sunday. 

- Heavy rain is possible for the Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and
  southwest North Carolina this weekend.

- Breezy conditions are likely Saturday into Saturday night with
  high winds likely over the far East Tennessee mountains and
  foothills and portions of southeast Tennessee.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Currently, Hurricane Isaias is located off the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Locally, high pressure remains in place with a subtropical jet to 
our south. Initially, this will keep the region dry and mild with 
Isaias expected to continue northeast through the day before 
shifting north late tonight. Throughout the day on Friday, high 
pressure will shift more to our northeast with height rises keeping 
temperatures well into the 80s. The subtropical jet will also shift 
north as Isaias makes landfall along the northern Gulf by Saturday 
morning. 

There still remains uncertainty in the exact track after landfall 
with a progression ranging from the Mississippi River Valley to 
Middle Tennessee possible by Saturday night. Initially, this will 
lead to an increase in rain chances from the south and increasing 
easterly and northeasterly flow that shifts southeasterly by the 
evening. Regardless of the exact track, strong winds in the higher 
elevations remains the largest impact for our region, especially in 
the mountains and foothills. With the strength of the MSLP gradient 
and low-level flow, advisory-level winds are also increasingly 
likely across portions of the Cumberland Plateau. However, warning-
level winds are likely in the mountains and foothills as any 
solution has 850mb flow in excess of 60 kts to our west. The 
strength of downsloping will also limit overall rain totals for the 
eastern half of the area until flow becomes more westerly by Sunday 
morning. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible, 
mainly in southern and western portions of the area.  

For the severe threat, current trends continue to suggest 
instability will stay largely to our south and west, especially if a 
more eastward track transpires after landfall. However, with the 
strength of 850mb winds, some damaging winds could possibly reach 
the surface in southern portions or the Plateau. Otherwise, most 
winds will be due to downsloping or the MSLP gradient. By Sunday 
evening into Sunday night, the remnants will continue to weaken as 
they progress off to our northeast. High pressure will then build in 
and give way to drier conditions into next week with above normal 
500mb heights keeping temperatures mild. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Clear skies and light winds will allow for fog to develop
throughout river valleys early this morning. HREF probabilities
for vis between 1 and 3 miles ranges from 30 to 50% in vicinity of
KTRI, thus, have included a brief tempo to account for this. 
Otherwise, VFR conditions with northerly winds less than 10kts are
expected for the period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  60  84  62 /   0   0   0  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  57  83  60 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  52  80  56 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS


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