051 
FXUS64 KMRX 081834
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will impact the region Saturday
  and Sunday. 

- Gusty winds are likely Saturday into Saturday night. Potential
  for high winds over the eastern Tennessee mountains and 
  foothills and portions of southeast Tennessee. 

- Heavy rain is possible for the Plateau, southeast Tennessee, 
  and southwest North Carolina this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026


The primary concern for this forecast period will be the impacts 
from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias this weekend. Hurricane Isaias 
is currently north of the Yucatan Peninsula and is forecast 
strengthen further over the next 24 hours. The storm will landfall 
somewhere along the central Gulf Coast sometime Friday evening-night 
before turning northwest. The remnant tropical low will move into 
western Tennessee by Saturday evening. This event will be another 
great example of impacts occurring away from the track of the 
surface low. Gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall will begin 
Saturday morning and continue into Sunday. The good news is that 
this storm will move through fairly quickly as it will begin to 
phase with an upper level trough moving through NE NOAM. This will 
limit the potential for heavy rains and flooding. 

Let's breakdown the expected impacts from the remnants of Hurricane
Isaias for the region for Saturday and Sunday:

Heavy Rain Potential: There will be potential of locally heavy 
rainfall beginning Saturday morning for mainly the Plateau, 
southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina. Rainfall amounts 
will range between 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts up to 
3" possible in SE TN. There will be an area of lighter amounts where 
downslope winds across the northern and central Tennessee valley act 
to limit the potential QPF amounts. A Flood Watch goes into effect 
Saturday morning for portions of SE TN and SW NC. 

High Winds Potential: The first corridor of high wind potential 
exists across SE TN and in and around the Chattanooga area. Wind 
gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas. Higher 
elevations around the Chattanooga area could see gusts by daybreak 
Saturday in excess of 60 mph, especially Lookout and Signal 
mountains.

The second corridor of high winds will be along the eastern TN 
mountains and foothills. The RRFS highlights the potential of high 
winds with peak gusts up to 80 mph in the mountains Saturday. 
Mountain wave high winds look likely for the far east Tennessee 
mountains and foothills given the pressure gradient in place between 
Isaias and a wedge of high pressure in the Carolinas. The potential 
for wind gusts between 60 to 80 mph is possible Saturday into Sunday 
morning. A High Wind Watch goes into effect for Saturday morning 
through Sunday morning to address the potential high winds. 

For the rest of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest 
North Carolina: Surface winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 
mph are possible Saturday and Sunday. What about the potential for 
severe weather? On Saturday, instability is sparse and elevated that 
should limit any thunderstorm development across our area. On 
Sunday, remnants of Isaias moves north and northeast of the region 
with chance of showers continuing. The dry slot may allow some 
limited instability to build in and support an isolated thunderstorm 
chance. The potential for severe thunderstorms remains very low. The 
remnants of Isaias will quickly move northeast into the Ohio Valley 
Sunday night.

Looking ahead to next week, we will see the return of upper 
level ridge as it builds into the region. This will return a
prolonged stretch of dry, mostly sunny weather for much of next
week. High temperatures will run a few degrees warmer than normal
with limited precipitation chances through mid-week. 


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

A broad area of high pressure is leading to clear skies and light
winds across the region this afternoon. This high should remain
established across the area through Friday leading to VFR flying
conditions at all TAF sites. KTRI did see a period of low 
clouds/fog this morning but overall trends do not appear favorable
for a repeat Friday morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  82  62  71 /   0   0  70 100 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  58  82  60  72 /   0   0  50  90 
Oak Ridge, TN                       57  81  60  71 /   0   0  40  90 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              52  79  57  70 /   0   0  30  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for 
     Cherokee-Clay.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for 
     Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for 
     Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-Sequatchie-West Polk.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for 
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East 
     Polk-Hamilton-Johnson-Marion-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-
     West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...CD


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