Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 09 2026 - 12Z Sun Oct 11 2026

...Hurricane Isaias will begin to impact the eastern Gulf coast Friday,
spreading northeastward Saturday into the TN Valley/Southern Appalachians
and Southeast...

...Moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel may bring heavy rains and flooding
potential to Southern California, the Southwest and Great Basin late
Saturday into Sunday...

...The recent heatwave over much of California coming to an end as a major
pattern change occurs over much of the West...

...Winter weather possible Saturday across the Northern Rockies...


Hurricane Isaias,currently over the central Gulf.  will continue to push
steadily northeastward Friday, with major life-threatening impacts
spreading inland Friday and continuing Saturday.  The highest winds and
greatest storm surge will be focused across the Florida Panhandle into far
southern Alabama, while the heavy rain threats will spread across a large
region from the eastern Gulf Coastal region on Friday, north and
northeastward through the mid-South, into the Tennessee Valley, Southern
Appalachians and Southeast on Saturday.  While tidal flooding will be
confined to the immediate Gulf coast, inland flash, urban and river
flooding are possible Friday and Saturday, especially across the Florida
Panhandle, northward into southern Alabama, far southwest Georgia and
across the Southern Appalachians from far western North Carolina and the
Upstate of South Carolina.  Rains from the extra-tropical remnants of
Isaias will push farther northeastward late Saturday into Sunday through
the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic.  Rainfall
totals will likely be less across these areas than for areas farther to
the south on Friday and Saturday given the overall weakening trend to the
storm at this time.

Active heavy rains and flash flooding potential also possible late
Saturday into Sunday from moisture associated with Tropical Storm Rachel.
This storm is forecast to push northeastward Friday and Saturday from the
northeast Pacific and toward the northern Baja of California.  While there
are uncertainties in the strength of this system as it moves
northeastward, there is high confidence that much above average moisture
values with Rachel will move across Southern California, the Southwest and
Great Basin Saturday and Sunday.  This will support potential for
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall beginning Saturday and continuing
into Sunday across these regions.  This heavy rains may lead to flash
flooding, especially in geographically sensitive regions of Southern
California into the Southwest and Southern Great Basin.

The overall large scale pattern that is allowing for the tropical moisture
to be drawn northeastward into Southern California, the Southwest and
Great Basin will also be bringing an end to the recent heatwave that has
gripped large portions of the West with much above average temperatures
and record heat.  One more day of much above average high temperatures and
record high potential is likely Friday across much of the West, followed
by much cooler temperatures spreading southeastward from the coastal
Pacific Northwest on Friday, into the Northwest and Northern California on
Saturday, and across the Northern Rockies, Great Basin, into the Southwest
and California on Sunday.  The coldest temperatures across the West
expected Saturday across the Northern Rockies and in the lee of the
Northern Rockies across northwestern Montana.  This may lead to early
season heavy snows for the Northern Rockies of Montana.  In addition to
the much above average temperatures across large portions of the West on
Friday, the dry conditions and warm temperatures will support an elevated
to critical fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin into
the Northern Rockies and lee of the Northern Rockies across the Northern
High Plains.  Red Flag warnings are currently in effect across much of
these areas.


Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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