123 
FXUS64 KMRX 090629
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
229 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will impact the region Saturday 
and Sunday. 

- Gusty winds are likely Saturday into Saturday night. High winds 
are likely over the eastern Tennessee mountains and foothills, and 
portions of southeast Tennessee. 

- Heavy rain is possible for the southern Plateau, southeast
  Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The primary concern for this forecast period will be the impacts 
from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias this weekend. The storm 
will landfall somewhere near the western most panhandle of 
Florida. The remnants of this storm will move north into western 
and middle Tennessee this weekend.

The main impacts from this storm across our area will be high winds 
and potential of heavy rainfall for the Plateau, southeast 
Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina. Downsloping winds across 
the central and northern Tennessee valley will limit QPF there.

Here are the more specific impacts from the remnants of Hurricane 
Isaias for Saturday and Sunday:

Heavy Rain Potential: Some tropical bands of heavy rain may move 
across the Plateau (especially southern), southeast Tennessee, and 
southwest North Carolina. Upslope flow into the Plateau will aid 
with the lift and potential banding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 
inches are possible. Again, downslope winds will limit QPF amounts 
over the northern and central valley. A flood watch remains in 
effect for parts of southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina.

High Winds Potential: The first corridor of high wind potential 
exists across SE TN and in and around the Chattanooga area. Since 
Isasia's low is moving a little further west the threat of gusts of 
60 mph has diminished some, however, gusts of 50 mph remain 
possible, especially Lookout and Signal mountains.

The second corridor and main corridor of high winds will be along 
the eastern TN mountains and foothills. The REFS continue to depict 
the potential of high winds with peak gusts up to 70 mph in the 
mountains Saturday. The tight presssure gradient from the wedge over 
the Carolinas and Isaisa low pressure will produce strong winds.

Mountain wave high winds look likely for the far east Tennessee 
mountains and foothills.  A High Wind Watch remains in effect for 
Saturday morning through Sunday morning to address the potential 
high winds. Have extended the watch to start at 06Z (2 AM Saturday 
morning)

For the rest of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest 
North Carolina: Surface winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 
mph are possible Saturday and Sunday. 

The potential for severe weather looks quite limited. Instability is 
low and mainly elevated especially for Saturday and Saturday night.
Warm frontal boundary remains south of the area.

Looking ahead to next week, we will see the return of upper level 
ridge as it builds into the region. This will return a prolonged 
stretch of dry, mostly sunny weather for much of next week. High 
temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

No aviation impacts are expected this period. There is a chance of
LLWS developing after the end of this TAF period as Hurricane 
Isaias moves closer to the area. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  61  72  63 /   0  90 100  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  60  73  63 /   0  60  80  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  59  71  62 /   0  50  80  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  57  67  61 /   0  20  90  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for 
     Cherokee-Clay.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for 
     Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Bradley-
     East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-Sequatchie-West Polk.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for 
     Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-West Polk.

     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for 
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier 
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS


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