Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 10 2026 - 00Z Mon Oct 12 2026

...Hurricane Isaias forecast to make landfall along the central Gulf Coast
later tonight bringing life-threatening storm surge to the coast as well
as damaging winds and flash flooding into the Southeast and Appalachians...

...Moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel will bring heavy rain, flash
flooding, and high winds to Southern California, the Southwest, and Great
Basin late Saturday into Sunday...

...First winter storm of the season forecast for the northern Rockies this
weekend...

A very active and dangerous period of weather is in store this weekend
from coast to coast with multiple tropical systems and a winter storm
bringing both widespread and wide-ranging impacts. Hurricane Isaias is
forecast to make landfall along the central Gulf Coast tonight, most
likely along the western Florida Panhandle, with related impacts spreading
well inland across the Southeast and Appalachians this weekend.
Life-threatening storm surge is expected along the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to Suwanee, Florida. Extremely dangerous and damaging
hurricane force winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi. Damaging wind gusts and heavy
rainfall are also likely over a large portion of the Southeast and into
the Appalachians. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) is in
effect for the Florida Panhandle as well as portions of southern Alabama
and southwestern Georgia today, with another Moderate Risk for portions of
northern Georgia into western South and North Carolina Saturday, for the
threat of scattered to widespread instances of flash flooding. Landslides
are also possible for the southern Appalachians. Broader Slight Risks
cover much of the Southeast and southern Appalachians for more scattered
instances of flash flooding. The potential for tornadoes will increase
through tonight and into tomorrow with Slight Risks from the Storm
Prediction Center (level 2/5) for both days from the Florida Panhandle
into Georgia and South Carolina. The greatest threat will be just east of
the center from the Florida Panhandle into portions of southern Georgia.
Locally heavy rainfall will spread northward on Sunday into portions of
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic with some isolated flash flooding
possible.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel in the Pacific will approach southern
California late Saturday night bringing a threat for heavy rainfall, flash
flooding, and strong winds both across southern California and as the
remnants spread inland through the Desert Southwest and Great Basin.
Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall are now in effect for the Peninsular
Ranges vicinity and immediate adjacent deserts in southern California
Saturday, and for portions of the Colorado River Valley into southwestern
Utah Sunday, for the threat of scattered to widespread flash flooding,
particularly for terrain sensitive areas. Broader Slight Risks cover
southern California and portions of the Desert Southwest Saturday and the
Great Basin Sunday. The heavy rainfall/flash flood threat is expected to
continue into Monday beyond the current forecast period. The gusty wind
threat will extend well inland through portions of the Desert Southwest
and Great Basin as well, with the highest gusts most likely for the higher
terrain. To the north, a seasonably deep upper-low will move into the
Northwest/northern Rockies with snow forecast for the northern Rockies.
The heaviest snow is expected for higher mountain elevations with totals
of 6-12", locally higher, possible. Some snow is also expected for lower
valley elevations as well as the immediate High Plains east of the
Rockies, with some lighter accumulations expected. The snow should taper
off later Sunday into Monday.

A significant change is in store temperature-wise over the western U.S.
following a period of well above average conditions including excessive
heat for portions of California and the Desert Southwest. Following one
more day of widespread highs in the 80s (with 90s to 100s in the Desert),
the noted deep-upper low and associated cold front will bring much cooler
temperatures southward through the weekend. Highs only in the 40s to low
60s will spread through the Northwest/Northern Rockies and northern
California Saturday, with highs falling into the 50s and 60s for the Great
Basin/coastal California and 70s to low 80s for the Desert
Southwest/central California Sunday. Some Frost/Freeze-related Advisories
and warnings are in effect for portions of the Northwest as lows fall into
the 30s. Conditions will remain well above average over much of the
central U.S. with widespread highs into the 80s and even low 90s for the
northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest and 90s for the southern
Plains. Some near-record tying/breaking highs will be possible. The cold
front in the west will bring much colder temperatures in the 40s to
portions of the northern High Plains Sunday. For the East, highs will vary
around average with more relatively cooler temperatures in vicinity of the
widespread clouds/rain associated with Isaias. Forecast highs are
generally in the 70s for the Southeast with 60s for the Northeast.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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