903 
FXUS64 KMRX 091821
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
221 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 148 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will impact the region tonight
  through Sunday. 

- Gusty winds are likely tonight through early Sunday morning. 
  High winds are likely over the eastern Tennessee mountains and 
  foothills, and portions of southeast Tennessee. 

- Heavy rain is possible for the southern Plateau, southeast
  Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The big story continues to be the impacts from the remnants of 
Hurricane Isaias for this weekend. Rain and wind will begin to ramp 
up overnight tonight. High winds are likely by daybreak in the 
mountains and foothills. While the low of the storm tracks through 
middle TN the impacts will expand far from the center of the system. 
Bottom line: it's going to be a wet and windy weekend for the 
Tennessee Valley, so make sure you're weather aware and prepared!

Here are the more specific impacts from the remnants of Hurricane 
Isaias for Saturday and Sunday:

Heavy Rain Potential: some tropical bands of heavy rain may move 
across the Plateau (especially southern), southeast Tennessee, and 
southwest North Carolina. Upslope flow into the Plateau will aid 
with the lift and potential banding precipitation on Saturday. 
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible. Again, downslope 
winds will limit QPF amounts over the northern and central valley.

A flood watch remains in effect for parts of southeast Tennessee and 
southwest North Carolina.

High Winds Potential: Increased confidence for gusty winds this 
weekend. High Wind Warning issued for Mountains, foothills. Wind 
Advisory issued elsewhere. Strong gusty winds are likely!

The main corridor of high winds will be along the eastern TN 
mountains and foothills. The hi-res suite continues to depict the 
potential of high winds with peak gusts up to 70 mph in the 
mountains on Saturday. The tight pressure gradient from the wedge 
over the Carolinas and Isaias low pressure will produce strong 
winds. Mountain wave high winds look likely for the far east 
Tennessee mountains and foothills. A High Wind Warning goes into 
effect tonight through Sunday morning to address the potential high 
winds. We did expand the High Wind Warning to include Washington and 
Russell counties in SW VA. I have adjusted the High Wind Warning and 
Wind Advisory start time to begin at midnight EDT/11pm CDT as winds 
are expected to ramp up quickly. 

For Chattanooga area, the threat of gusts in excess of 60 
mph has diminished some, however, gusts of 50-60 mph remain 
possible, especially Lookout and Signal mountains. 

For the rest of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest 
North Carolina: Surface winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 
mph are possible Saturday and Sunday. We have opted to issue Wind 
advisories to address the strong gusty winds.

Severe Thunderstorm potential: The potential for severe weather 
looks quite limited. Instability is low and mainly elevated 
especially for Saturday and Saturday night as the warm sector 
remains to our south and east. A few rumbles of thunder cant be 
ruled out but severe weather is not expected. 

Looking ahead to next week, we will see the return of upper level 
ridge as it builds into the region at the start of the week. This 
will return a prolonged stretch of dry, mostly sunny weather for 
much of next week. High temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Period starts with VFR conditions and a mid-level cloud deck
overhead. Primary concern will be the timing as the remnants of 
Hurricane Isaias approaches our sites from the south. Impacts
arrive Saturday morning at CHA and TYS and TRI by late morning. 
We've added rain with MVFR vsby and cigs to address the 
precipitation shield advancing northward. LLWS is included at both
CHA and TYS with TRI likely included with the next TAF update.
Wind speeds will increase by daybreak. Saturday morning will see winds
generally around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 30 to 35 knots.
Impacts will continue through the end of the TAF. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  72  62  73 /  90 100  90  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  73  64  73 /  60  80  70  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  71  62  71 /  50  80  80  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  67  62  76 /  20  90  70  90 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for 
     Cherokee-Clay.

     Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for 
     Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Wind Advisory from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM EDT 
     /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-
     Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-
     Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North 
     Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
     Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
     Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

     Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Bledsoe-
     Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-Meigs-Rhea-Sequatchie-
     West Polk.

     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for 
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-
     Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast 
     Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for Lee-
     Scott VA-Wise.

     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for 
     Russell-Washington VA.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...BH


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