Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 10 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 12 2026

...Hurricane Isaias brings life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds,
heavy rain, and severe weather to southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle. Flash flooding and severe weather spreading into the Southeast
and Appalachians...

...Moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel will bring heavy rain, flash
flooding, and high winds to Southern California, the Southwest, and Great
Basin late Saturday into Sunday...

...First winter storm of the season forecast for the Northern Rockies this
weekend...

An active and dangerous period of weather is in store this weekend as two
tropical systems and a winter storm produce widespread and wide-ranging
impacts across the Lower 48. The first of these systems, Hurricane Isaias,
made landfall several hours ago near Destin, Florida and is presently
taking a northward track inland. While Isaias is rapidly losing tropical
characteristics, this storm is no less dangerous as hurricane-force winds
and life-threatening storm surge continue to batter portions of coastal
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Moreover, bands of thunderstorms
spiraling around Isaias will maintain the threat of significant flash
flooding and a few tornadoes from South-Central Alabama to the Florida
Panhandle this morning. While Isaias undergoes extratropical transition
over the next 24 hours, impactful heavy rainfall and severe weather will
shift into the Southeast and Lower Mid-Atlantic. Portions of the Southern
Appalachians are of particular concern for flash flooding today, where
landslides are possible. By Sunday, the remnants of Isaias are expected to
race toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, which could support isolated
instances of flash flooding before pulling away on Monday.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel in the Pacific will approach southern
California late Saturday night, ushering in heavy rainfall, flash
flooding, and strong winds both across Southern California, the Desert
Southwest, and Great Basin. Numerous instances of flash flooding can be
expected near the Peninsular Ranges of Southern California today, and
over portions of the Colorado River Valley on Sunday. By Monday, the
tropical moisture associated with Rachel's remnants will begin to wash
out, although scattered flash flooding remains possible over the Desert
Southwest and Great Basin, which could certainly exacerbate flood impacts
from this weekend. Rainfall aside, the threat for gusty winds will extend
well inland across portions of the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, with
the highest gusts focused in the higher terrain. To the north of the
rainfall, a seasonably deep upper-low will move into the
Northwest/Northern Rockies and lead to the first winter storm for portions
of the the Northern Rockies. The heaviest snow is expected for higher
mountain elevations with totals of 10-20" possible over Central Montana
through tomorrow morning.

A significant change is in store temperature-wise over the western U.S.
following a period of well above average conditions including excessive
heat for portions of California and the Desert Southwest. Following one
more day of widespread highs in the 80s (with 90s to 100s in the Desert),
the noted deep-upper low and associated cold front will bring much cooler
temperatures southward through the weekend. Highs only in the 40s to low
60s will spread through the Northwest/Northern Rockies and northern
California Saturday, with highs falling into the 50s and 60s for the Great
Basin/coastal California and 70s to low 80s for the Desert
Southwest/central California Sunday. Some Frost/Freeze-related Advisories
and warnings are in effect for portions of the Northwest as lows fall into
the 30s. Conditions will remain well above average over much of the
central U.S. with widespread highs into the 80s and even low 90s for the
northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest and 90s for the southern
Plains. Some near-record tying/breaking highs will be possible. The cold
front in the west will bring much colder temperatures in the 40s to
portions of the northern High Plains Sunday. For the East, highs will vary
around average with more relatively cooler temperatures in vicinity of the
widespread clouds/rain associated with Isaias. Forecast highs are
generally in the 70s for the Southeast with 60s for the Northeast.

Asherman/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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