Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 11 2026 - 00Z Tue Oct 13 2026

...Post Tropical Isaias will bring widespread rainfall across the Eastern
states...

...Moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel will bring heavy rain and flash
flooding to the southwestern U.S. through Monday...

...First winter storm of the season forecast for the Northern Rockies this
weekend...

An active weather pattern will be in place across the Continental U.S.
through the remainder of the weekend and into Monday. What is now Post
Tropical Isaias is currently tracking north across Alabama, and is
bringing widespread rainfall from the Mississippi River eastward to the
central Appalachians and the southeast coast, with drier conditions
returning to the central Gulf Coast region after torrential rain and high
winds. The heaviest rainfall over the next two days is expected to be
across the southern and central Appalachians, particularly on southeast
facing terrain where orographic ascent will be enhanced with the potential
for 2-4 inch rainfall totals with isolated higher amounts possible that
may result in some flooding, along with high winds across the higher
ridges. A secondary maxima of heavy rain is also expected near coastal
North Carolina.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also make weather headlines across
the western U.S. as the future remnants of what is now Tropical Storm
Rachel move inland across the Desert Southwest. A Moderate Risk of
excessive rainfall is valid from southern California to southern Utah
where an enhanced corridor of heavier rainfall is expected to develop. The
potential exists for rainfall totals to exceed three inches across the
higher terrain of the Peninsular Ranges and into southeastern Nevada and
the southern Wasatch Range, and generally 1-2 inches for the lower
elevations. This could easily result in some instances of flash flooding.
Farther to the north across Montana, it will be much colder north of the
frontal boundary, and the incoming moisture should mainly be in the form
of snow across the higher terrain of central and western Montana, with
some areas possibly getting over a foot of snowfall through Monday
afternoon. Snow levels will be much higher across Idaho and Wyoming,
limiting snowfall to the highest terrain.

A temperature dichotomy will exist across the country through Sunday and
into Monday. Conditions will remain well above average over much of the
central U.S. with widespread highs into the 80s and even lower 90s for the
northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest and 90s for the southern
Plains. There will likely be some new daily record highs established as a
result. The cold front in the West will bring much colder temperatures in
the 40s to portions of the northern High Plains Sunday. For the East,
highs will vary around average with relatively cooler temperatures in
vicinity of the widespread clouds and rain associated with the remnants of
Isaias. Forecast highs are generally in the 70s for the Southeast with 60s
for the Northeast.

Hamrick


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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