Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 11 2026 - 12Z Tue Oct 13 2026

...Moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel brings heavy rain and flash
flooding to the southwestern U.S. through Monday...

...Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias brings widespread rainfall across the
Eastern states...

...First winter storm of the season forecast for the Northern Rockies this
weekend...

An active weather pattern remains in place across the Lower 48 to close
out the weekend. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias is tracking toward the
central Appalachians, spreading widespread showers and thunderstorms into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this morning ahead of a cold front wrapping
into its center. Steady soaking rainfall will continue all day, which
could lead to isolated or scattered flash flooding and severe weather
before the system accelerates into the western Atlantic on Monday. The
next chance for rain will arrive over the Northeast and New England on
Tuesday as a developing frontal system on slides into the Upper Midwest;
no excessive rainfall threat is expected with this activity.

Meanwhile, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also make weather
headlines across the Western U.S. as Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel moves
inland across the Desert Southwest today. A Moderate Risk of excessive
rainfall is valid from Southern California to southern Utah where an
enhanced corridor of heavier rainfall is expected to develop near a
frontal boundary. Through tomorrow, the potential exists for rainfall
totals to exceed three inches across the higher terrain of the Peninsular
Ranges, southeastern Nevada, and the southern Wasatch Range, while
generally 1-2 inches are possible for lower elevations. This could easily
result in numerous instances of flash flooding. Temperatures north of the
front across Montana will be much colder, resulting in snow across the
higher terrain of central and western Montana. Some areas could exceed a
foot of snowfall through Monday afternoon.

A temperature dichotomy will exist across the country through Monday.
Conditions will remain well above average over much of the central U.S.
with widespread highs into the 80s and even lower 90s for the
Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest and 90s for the Southern
Plains. There will likely be some new daily record highs established as a
result. The cold front in the West will bring much colder temperatures in
the 40s to portions of the northern High Plains Sunday. For the East,
highs will vary around average with relatively cooler temperatures in
vicinity of the widespread clouds and rain associated with the remnants of
Isaias. Forecast highs are generally in the 70s for the Southeast with 60s
for the Northeast.

Asherman/Hamrick


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)