733 
FXUS64 KMRX 121052 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
652 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Unusually warm this week with dry weather through Thursday.

- Patchy fog potential next couple mornings. Use caution if 
encountering fog.

- Widespread frost potential for this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Upper trough will be moving out today, with only a few lingering 
showers possible in the morning hours in far northeast Tennessee and 
near 81 in Virginia. Otherwise clouds will be clearing from west to 
east through the day. Temperatures likewise will begin the rebound 
to above normal. This trend continues through Thursday as the jet 
stream moves off to the north and a summer strength upper ridge sets 
up and dominates over the southern US. The ridge's strength also 
means dry weather through Thursday.

With dewpoints also remaining elevated and our recent rainfall, we 
should see patchy fog for the next couple mornings. Some patchy fog 
possible this morning, but certainly expect to see more widespread 
fog Tuesday morning.

Heading into late week we continue to see signs of a significant 
temperature change for the weekend. Friday a weak front will pass 
by, and the accompanying rainfall is very little. However, the 
airmass change behind the front is significant, knocking the wider 
region from its above normal temperature stance back into a true 
taste of fall for mid October. Saturday's highs are in the low 60s, 
now below average, and Sunday morning has 50% (or higher) chances 
from Morgan County to Hamblen and north to be in the temperature 
range for frost. For the Tri-Cities, this is right on time to 
experience the first bout of temperatures this cold for the fall. 
Seasonal plants beware, your time outdoors is quickly coming to an 
end for this year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Dense fog at CHA wil gradually lift in the next few hours. Cigs
will be variable between VFR and MVFR at TYS and TRI for a couple
more hours before clearing by noon. Tonight, conditions appear
favorable for fog development at all sites, especially TRI.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  59  85  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  58  84  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...DGS


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