Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 13 2026 - 00Z Thu Oct 15 2026

...Heavy rainfall continues over the Great Basin and Southwest today; wet
weather moves into the Plains later this week...

...Mid-Week Brings Plains Storms, Eastern Heat, and Western Chill...

A persistent cold front combined with remnant tropical moisture is set to
prolong damp conditions across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into
early this week. Heavy downpours are anticipated today, particularly in
elevated areas stretching from Utah down through Arizona. Because these
heavy rains are falling on ground already saturated by recent storms,
localized flash flooding remains a key concern. The Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive
rainfall. Furthermore, as an upper low-pressure system glides in from the
Pacific Northwest, temperatures will plunge, as well as, snow levels in
the higher elevations to support snow on the peaks of the Shoshone and
Monitor Range in Nevada and Utah Wasatch. This upper-level system will
keep the West damp into Tuesday, maintaining a localized flood threat
across parts of Utah.

By midweek, the primary storm focus shifts east toward the Central and
Southern Plains, where surging moisture will collide with a lingering
front and an intensifying dryline. A line of scattered severe
thunderstorms could break out from Kansas City down to Lubbock on
Tuesday.The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5) for severe weather, with the main threats other than heavy rain being
large hail and damaging winds. By Wednesday, rainfall totals reaching 2 to
3 inches are likely along a corridor spanning western Missouri to the
Texas Big Bend, triggering a slight risk for excessive runoff. Farther
northeast, a developing low-pressure wave will drag rain and thunder
across northern stretches of the Upper Midwest and New England on Tuesday
and Wednesday. While flood threats remain minimal there, higher elevations
like Maine's Boundary and Blue Mountains could see minor snow accumulation.

Lastly, in terms of temperatures nationwide, a dramatic temperature split
will divide the nation through the middle of the week. Unusually warm air
will envelop the Central and Eastern states, driving afternoon peaks into
the 80s and low 90s across the Plains and Midwest, likely challenging or
surpassing standing daily heat records. Conversely, the western interior
will shiver under the upper-level low, struggling to push past the 40s and
50s. Over the next two days, colder air will trickle southward behind the
advancing boundary, ushering in a sharp cooldown for the Northern Plains,
Upper Midwest, and New England.

Green/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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