765 
FXUS64 KMRX 121833
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
233 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Unusually warm this week with dry weather through Thursday.

- Patchy fog potential Tuesday morning. Use caution if encountering 
fog.

- Frost potential this weekend mainly in Northeast Tennessee and 
Southwest Virginia.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The upper level trough has moved out of the region and a ridge is 
now over the Southeast into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high 
pressure is over the Southeast. This pattern will hold through 
Thursday resulting in above normal temperatures and dry weather. 
Temperatures will be about 10 to 13 degrees above normal with a 
strong ridge in place. With mostly clear skies tonight and calm 
winds, patchy fog development is likely. With residual ground 
moisture remaining in many places, fog may be widespread. Guidance 
is mixed on dense fog potential. 

By late afternoon or evening on Thursday, low rain chances start to 
return to the northern higher terrain areas as an upper level trough 
moves through the Midwest and a surface low develops near IL/IN. The 
surface low will track northeast through the Great Lakes bringing a 
cold front through the Tennessee Valley on Friday. Rain chances will 
be low for most of the region with this front. The best rain chances 
will be in Southwest Virginia and the higher elevations. 

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and much cooler as a trough moves 
over the Eastern U.S. On Saturday, highs will be mainly in the lower 
60s throughout the Tennessee Valley which is about 10 degrees below 
normal. Westerly winds behind the cold front will be gusty late 
Friday through Saturday with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible at
times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

There is potential for fog development in the early morning hours
tomorrow. There is medium to high confidence that visibility
restrictions will be widespread. There is low to medium 
confidence in patchy dense fog. TRI has the highest chance for
dense fog. Otherwise, conditions will be dry and VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...McD


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