Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 13 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 15 2026

...Unsettled weather moves from the West into the Plains...

...Record breaking warmth set to wane later this week...

A closed low barreling towards the Four Corners will maintain cool and wet
weather for the next 48 hours along and west of the Rockies. Meanwhile,
the focus for showers and thunderstorms will shift into the Heartland as
the system and a ridge in the Gulf funnel unstable air northward toward a
slow-moving frontal boundary. This pattern will support several days of
heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding from the Corn Belt to the
Texas Big Bend, where storm total rainfall could exceed 2-4" of rain
through Thursday. Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large
hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are also possible today from
Kansas City to Lubbock. Farther east, the front should be more
progressive, with a developing low pressure wave bringing soaking rain and
some elevation snowfall today in New England.

Temperature-wise, unseasonable warmth will continue for a few more days
across the Midwest and Southeast where several daily record highs could
fall. This stands in stark contrast to the West, where numerous first
freezes are occurring this morning. By the end of the workweek, however,
fall-like weather will descend over much of the Central U.S. as
reinforcing cold air from Canada arrives and accelerates the slow moving
front southward.

Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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