146 
FXUS64 KMRX 131047 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
647 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 646 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Areas of fog this morning. Use caution when driving through fog.

- Unusually warm this week with dry weather through Thursday.

- Widespread frost potential for this weekend. Consider bringing
  frost sensitive plants indoors.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Near saturated or already saturated surface conditions with clear 
overhead skies and light winds should promote another round of 
morning fog today before the Sun can help dissipate the shallow 
inversion as the day progresses. Once fog departs from our valleys, 
temperatures will rocket back upwards, reaching the first of the 
three hot days of the week. This trend continues through Thursday as 
the jet stream moves off to the north and a summer strength upper 
ridge sets up and dominates over the southern US. Temperatures will 
be flirting with daily record highs during the middle of the week.

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge           
10-13   88(1954)       89(1935)       86(1954)       84(2017)       
10-14   87(1954)       87(1881)       85(1954)       85(1954)       
10-15   85(1950)       87(1897)       83(1971)       83(2021)     

There is some low potential for a rain shower Thursday afternoon, 
but should be confined to higher terrain with guidance depicting 
very meager CAPE profiles.

A phased upper trough will bring about a polar front into the 
Eastern US for Friday. This cold front won't bring about much, if 
any, precipitation, but will usher in a breezy and significant 
airmass change for the whole region. For the Tri-Cities, this is 
right on time to experience the first bout of temperatures favorable 
for frost formation. Those with temperature sensitive plants should 
consider bringing them in definitely for Saturday night, but also 
consider Friday and Sunday nights with also chilly lows, especially 
in northern locales. Temperatures then will slightly rebound going 
into early next week as we maintain a below average precipitation 
stance for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Dense fog at TRI will lift in the next few hours. Satellite shows
fog close to CHA and TYS, but it should stay out of the terminals.
VFR conditions are expected through the day, with potential for
fog again tonight at TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  85  61  86  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  59  85  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  56  83  61 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...DGS


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