Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 14 2026 - 00Z Fri Oct 16 2026

...Unsettled weather moves into the West with rain, mixed precipitation,
and mountain snow...

...Heavy rain and severe storms expected across the central U.S....

...Unseasonable warmth to give way to cooler conditions later this week...

A developing low pressure system moving toward the Four Corners region
will bring another round of chilly, unsettled weather over the next two
days, including freezing temperatures, mixed precipitation, and heavy
snowfall at the highest elevations of the central Rockies. Early-season
freeze warnings are also in effect across parts of the central Rockies and
the Dakotas, where temperatures are expected to drop below freezing.

Meanwhile, abundant moisture from the Gulf will fuel repeated rounds of
showers and thunderstorms along a nearly stationary front stretching
across the central and southern Plains. Heavy rainfall is expected to
persist through Thursday, with totals potentially reaching 2�4 inches or
more from the Texas Big Bend into the Mid-South, increasing the potential
for localized flash flooding. Some storms could also become severe this
afternoon and evening as warm, humid air and favorable upper-level winds
create conditions supportive of organized thunderstorms. The greatest
threats will extend from the southern High Plains into Kansas and the
Lower Missouri Valley, where storms may produce large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and an isolated tornado. Flood Watches are already in place for
these areas. In the Northeast, the frontal system will move through more
quickly, while a developing wave of low pressure brings widespread rain
and possible snow at higher elevations across New England today.

Lastly, above-normal temperatures are expected to persist across the
Midwest and Southeast for several more days, with some areas at risk of
breaking daily high temperature records. However, a shift toward cooler
conditions is on the horizon. By late this week, a surge of chilly
Canadian air will spread across much of the central United States, driving
a slow-moving cold front farther south and ushering in more seasonable
autumn temperatures, bringing the recent stretch of unusual warmth to an
end.

Green


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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