315 
FXUS64 KMRX 131815
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
215 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Unseasonably warm with mostly dry weather through Thursday.

- Frost potential for this weekend. Consider bringing frost 
sensitive plants indoors.

- Dry with a warming trend early next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

We start the period under a large upper ridge parked over the 
southeastern US, providing dry and unseasonably warm conditions. 
Patchy river valley fog looks likely again tonight, but it 
currently looks likely to be less than occurred early this 
morning. Temperatures will be approaching, or in some cases 
possibly exceeding, daily record highs today through Thursday.

Record highs through Thursday:
Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge           
10-13   88(1954)       89(1935)       86(1954)       84(2017)       
10-14   87(1954)       87(1881)       85(1954)       85(1954)       
10-15   85(1950)       87(1897)       83(1971)       83(2021)  

A weak cold front will sag southward toward our northern areas as a 
mid/upper level short wave skirts by to our north late Wed 
night/Thursday, but the front will likely stall near our northern 
border and then retreat north. We may see a few showers mainly north 
Thursday as the front approaches. CAPE generally looks very limited, 
but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out far north. 

An upper trough digging in out of Canada will push a much stronger 
cold front through our area Friday. This front will not bring much 
if any precipitation as moisture looks very limited and shallow at 
best, but a few showers will be possible mainly north and mountains. 
Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest Friday. 

Surface high pressure will build in along with colder and drier air 
behind the front.  This colder airmass will bring night time 
temperatures into the range where frost may occur especially across 
our northern areas.  The best chance for frost looks to be Saturday 
night, but Friday night (probably too much wind for frost) and 
Sunday nights will be quite chilly as well. After a cool day 
Saturday with well below normal high temperatures, we will see a 
warming trend through next Tuesday with dry conditions continuing.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Main concern is possible fog development again late tonight.
Confidence is not high, but the highest chances look to be at TRI
and to lesser extent CHA again. Will include no lower than MVFR
conditions both sites for now, but lower conditions are possible.
Otherwise, will have a VFR forecast for the period all sites.
Winds will generally be light.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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