Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 14 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 16 2026

...Heavy rainfall and severe weather continues along slow moving front in
the Southern Plains...

...Strong high pressure brings the first taste of Fall for much of the
Central U.S. later this week...

A consolidating low pressure system will maintain wet and unsettled
weather over the Plains and Lower Ohio Valley, expanding eastward ahead of
strong high pressure Thursday. The main impacts from this initial system
include widespread heavy rainfall and scattered severe thunderstorms along
the front in the Southern Plains today and tomorrow. Over the next 48
hours,  2-4" of rain is possible across a wide swath from south-central
Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Numerous instances of flash flooding could
result as these thunderstorms train over the same areas. On the cold side
of the system, snowfall will continue over the Central Rockies with
upwards of a foot possible in the peaks of the Rockies of northern
Colorado.

Precipitation aside, unseasonable and record breaking warmth will continue
through Thursday over portions of the Southern Plains, Southeast, and
Mid-Atlantic. However, a strong area of high pressure descending from
northern Canada will usher in a sharp pattern change for much of the
Central U.S. later this week. Temperatures behind the front could fall as
much as 20-25 degrees, and many areas will at least flirt with their first
freeze of the season as overnight lows approach freezing late Friday.

Asherman

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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