878 
FXUS64 KMRX 141039 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
639 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Patchy fog possible this morning. Use caution when driving through 
fog.

- Unusually warm this week with only very isolated rain chances 
through Thursday. Light rain is likely mainly north of Knoxville 
during the Friday PM hours.

- Widespread frost potential north of the Knox Metro in the valley 
and for elevated locations Saturday and Sunday nights. Consider 
bringing frost sensitive plants indoors.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Hot for October to continue today thanks to the highly anomalous 
ridge to our south. Moisture riding up and over the ridge will spark 
some showers and storms north and northwest of East Tennessee and 
southwest VA. It is conceivable, as shown in a few HRRR runs, that 
light rain from dying cells reaches the northern Plateau like Scott 
County TN late this evening into tonight, but rainfall will remain 
inconsequential. Otherwise we will be again near daily record highs 
both today and tomorrow.

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge                 
10-14   87(1954)       87(1881)       85(1954)       85(1954)       
10-15   85(1950)       87(1897)       83(1971)       83(2021)     

There is again very low potential for a rain shower Thursday 
afternoon, but is likely confined to southwestern Virginia per 
ensemble consensus with guidance depicting very meager CAPE profiles.

A phased upper trough will bring about a polar front into the 
Eastern US for Friday. Despite rain chances being quite high for 
portions of northeastern TN into VA, overall rain amounts are 
pitiful thanks to the shallow vertical moisture profiles. Light rain 
showers will pass through both along the front, and post-frontal 
into Friday evening. Winds may be a bit breezy Friday afternoon, 
chilly as cold air advection starts working behind the front in a 
northwest flow. Saturday, then, is much cooler versus Friday and 
sets us up for a cool couple of nights. For the Tri-Cities, this 
frontal passage is right on time to experience the first bout of 
temperatures favorable for frost. Those with temperature sensitive 
plants should consider bringing them in definitely for Saturday 
night, as well as Sunday night, especially in northern locales. Best 
chances for temperatures less than 37F remain in elevated terrain 
and north of the Knoxville Metropolitan area. Temperatures then will 
slightly rebound going into early next week as we maintain a below 
average precipitation stance for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

AFter fog at TRI lifts in the next hour or two, conditions will be
VFR through the day. Fog may develop again late in the period at
TRI, but will leave it out of the TAF for now as confidence is
low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  65  89  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  64  87  65 /   0  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  64  86  62 /   0  10  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  61  84  62 /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...DGS


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