Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 15 2026 - 00Z Sat Oct 17 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Plains on Wednesday...

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southern Plains on Wednesday...

Low pressure over the Southern High Plains will move northeastward to
Southeastern Canada by Friday evening. Moisture from the Gulf will pool
along and ahead of the front over the Southern Plains, producing showers
and severe thunderstorms with heavy rain on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southern Plains on Wednesday through Thursday morning. Numerous flash
flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows
in or near recently burned areas.

Moreover, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley roughly northeastward
to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and narrow canyons/gullies the most vulnerable.

The SPC has also issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
over the Southern Plains Wednesday through Thursday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Moisture will continue to stream into parts of the Southern Plains,
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain on Thursday. As a
result, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains from Thursday through Friday
morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The flooding may
include debris flows in or near recently burned areas.

The threat of severe thunderstorms will decrease slightly on Thursday to a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern
Plains. Hazards associated with these thunderstorms include frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Friday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain will end over
the Southern Plains. However, rain will continue over western Texas on
Friday morning with showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast. As the
low moves into the Northeast, rain will develop over the Great Lakes and
extend into the Northeast, mainly ending over the Upper Great Lakes by
Friday evening.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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