657 
FXUS64 KMRX 141736
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
136 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Unusually warm for October and mostly dry through Thursday. 

- A few showers possible north tonight/Thursday, with more showers
  around Friday/Friday night.

- Frost is possible Saturday night, and to a lesser extent on 
  Sunday night. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

We remain under the influence of the large upper ridge parked 
over the southeastern US, which is sponsoring the dry and 
anomalously hot October days we are currently experiencing. 
Temperatures will be approaching, or in some cases likely 
exceeding, daily record highs both today and Thursday.

Record highs today and Thursday: 
Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge                 
10-14   87(1954)       87(1881)       85(1954)       85(1954)       
10-15   85(1950)       87(1897)       83(1971)       83(2021)  

A weak cold front will sag southward toward our northern areas as 
weak mid/upper level short wave energy skirts by to our north 
tonight and Thursday, but the front will likely stall to our 
north and then retreat north. We may see a few showers mainly 
north tonight and Thursday closer to the front. Ensemble data 
shows very limited CAPE, so chances for any thunder look quite 
low. 

An upper trough digging in out of Canada will push a much stronger 
cold front through our area Friday. This front will not bring much 
in the way of rainfall totals as moisture looks limited and 
shallow, but we will see mostly light showers especially north and
mountains Friday afternoon and Friday night, with a few light 
showers possibly lingering into Saturday morning. Winds will be 
gusty Friday from the southwest becoming west and northwest 
later in the day.

Surface high pressure will build in along with colder and drier air 
for the weekend. This colder airmass will bring night time 
temperatures into the range where frost may occur especially 
across our northern areas. Right now the best chance for 
widespread frost looks to be Saturday night across the northern 
half of our area, and a few outlying valley areas across our 
southern half could see patchy frost as well. Frost potential for 
Sunday night looks lower, but patchy frost may occur again 
especially north. 

After a cool day Saturday with well below normal high temperatures, 
we will see a warming trend through next Wednesday with dry 
conditions continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Fog cannot be ruled out toward sunrise, but the probability of 
it impacting any site looks too low to include. VFR conditions 
are expected for the period all sites. Winds will generally be 
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  89  63  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  87  65  82 /   0  10   0  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  86  63  82 /  10  10   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  84  61  80 /  10  10   0  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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