Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 16 2026 - 00Z Sun Oct 18 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Ohio Valley on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic on Friday...

Low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move northeastward to
the Canadian Maritimes Provinces by late Friday evening. Moisture from the
Gulf will pool along and ahead of the front over the Southern Plains,
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain on Thursday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday through Friday
morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The flooding may
include debris flows in or near recently burned areas.

Rain will develop over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on
Thursday, then move into the Great Lakes overnight Thursday and into the
Northeast on Friday. Wet snow will develop over parts of the
Northeast/Lower Great Lakes on Saturday morning.

The SPC has also issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
over the Ohio Valley Thursday through Friday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

The threat of severe thunderstorms moves eastward on Friday as the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Friday through Saturday morning. Hazards associated with
these thunderstorms include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

Also on Friday morning, rain will continue over parts of western Texas
with showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast. The rain will move
into the Central Appalachians by Friday afternoon and into the
Mid-Atlantic by Friday evening.  On Friday evening, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida.  The rain mainly ends
over most of the Northeast. However, light wet snow will develop over
higher elevations in the Northeast. Rain will move into the Carolinas by
Saturday morning.

Lastly, a front will move onshore over parts of the Pacific Northwest by
Saturday morning, producing light rain in parts of the area. Rain showers
will develop over parts of the Southwest Friday afternoon into Saturday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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