ACUS01 KWNS 160051
SWODY1
SPC AC 160049

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IN INTO OH...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of localized strong/damaging gusts and
possibly a brief tornado remain possible this evening across parts
of southern Indiana into Ohio.

...Parts of IN/OH...
A small storm cluster is ongoing this evening across southern IN,
near the intersection of a surface trough and warm front. As a
vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough and deepening surface low
move across the Great Lakes this evening, the warm front will
continue to move northward. Modest buoyancy within the persistent
low-level warm-advection regime will allow for maintenance of
convection through parts of OH into the Lower Great Lakes, though
surface-based buoyancy will become increasingly scant with time and
northeastward extent. 

In the short term, locally damaging wind will be possible with the
strongest storms. Favorable low-level shear/SRH may also support a
brief-tornado threat, though this threat should eventually diminish
as convection tends to become increasingly elevated. Some threat for
localized strong/damaging gusts could spread across OH through late
evening, before increasing low-level stability results in a
diminishing threat.

..Dean.. 10/16/2026

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