Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 16 2026 - 12Z Sun Oct 18 2026

...Severe Thunderstorm risk for Friday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic
into Southern New England...

...Flash Flooding risk for Friday and Saturday across portions of
Florida...

...Below seasonal temperatures spread eastward from central U.S. into
eastern U.S. by Saturday...


A deepening surface low will continue to track northeastward from the
Great Lakes into southeastern Canada through Friday and will drive a
strong cold front eastward across the eastern U.S. through Saturday, while
a surface trough extends into the Upper Midwest. Gulf moisture streaming
northward ahead of the boundary will support showers and thunderstorms
across the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic, Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Strong wind shear and sufficient
instability will also support a few severe thunderstorms across portions
of the Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England. These storms may also
produce damaging wind gust and a brief localized tornado.

Colder air wrapping around the system will support a transition to wet
snow across portions of the lower Great Lakes and higher elevations of the
Northeast by late Friday into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the trailing
cold front will advance across the Southeast, with showers and
thunderstorms continuing for portions of the Carolinas and Florida into
Saturday. Repeated rainfall and high rainfall rates will lead to excessive
rainfall/flash flooding risk over portions of Florida Friday into
Saturday. Across the West, a cold front will move into the Pacific
Northwest early Saturday morning bringing light showers across the area,
while scattered showers develop across portions of the Southwest.

In the wake of the front, Canadian high pressure will build southeastward
across the Plains, Midwest and Eastern U.S., ushering in a noticeably
cooler and drier airmass. Temperatures will drop well below seasonal
across portions of the central U.S. before cooler conditions spread
eastward. Overnight lows may approach freezing in parts of central U.S.,
with frost and freeze concerns expanding into portions of Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast Saturday into Sunday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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