MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 302007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302006 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...North Texas into southeast Oklahoma and southwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 302006Z - 302200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front
draped from western Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma and
north/northeast Texas in the coming hours. The convective
environment will likely support supercells with a large hail and
severe wind risk. Watch issuance is expected as convective
initiation becomes imminent.

DISCUSSION...Forcing along the surface cold front is evident in
visible imagery  as a narrow band of agitated cumulus draped from
western AR into southeast OK and into northern TX. GOES day cloud
phase imagery suggests that convective initiation is not immediately
imminent, though temperatures warming into the low 80s with an
influx of mid-60s dewpoints has been slowly eroding inhibition per
recent RAP mesoanalyses. The warm/moist low-level conditions,
coupled with 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, are supporting MLCAPE
values upwards of 2500 J/kg. While the strongest mid-level winds
associated with the passing upper wave are beginning to move beyond
the greater Texarkana region, 35-45 knot flow aloft is still
sufficient for 40-45 knot effective bulk shear. Southwesterly winds
in the lowest kilometer are limiting low-level helicity across TX
and southeast OK, but is favoring somewhat straight hodographs that
will promote splitting supercells with an attendant risk for severe
winds and very large (2.0 to 3.0 inch) hail. Into southwest AR, more
southerly flow within a residual cold pool from morning convection
may allow for locally higher SRH and a somewhat higher tornado
threat. 

The timing of convective initiation and storm coverage remain
uncertain. Latest high-res guidance suggests storm coverage will be
limited to parts of northern/central TX, but surface temperatures
are currently 2-4 F warmer than forecast by guidance, suggesting
that modeled inhibition may be erroneously strong. Regardless, given
the aforementioned convective environment, a severe threat will
likely materialize if/when thunderstorms begin to develop late this
afternoon/evening. Trends will continue to be monitored and watch
issuance is likely as the threat becomes more imminent.

..Moore/Smith.. 03/30/2025

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32539536 32389595 32309638 32259680 32259711 32299735
            32379754 32469763 32629760 32859742 33149691 33609627
            34599480 34799439 34839407 34839339 34729301 34429277
            33969309 33369377 32939438 32719487 32539536 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

$$
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