Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 17 2026 - 00Z Mon Oct 19 2026

...Strong cold front exits the East Coast tonight, ushering in the coldest
air of the season with widespread frost and freezing temperatures from the
Plains to the East this weekend...

...Nor'easter to develop off the Carolina coast this weekend, with
significant coastal flooding and beach erosion possible along portions of
the Mid-Atlantic coast into early next week...

...Santa Ana winds, critical fire weather, and unseasonable heat continue
across southern California through Saturday...


A powerful cold front will push off the East Coast tonight, ending the
record and near-record warmth over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. A line
of strong to locally severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will
move across the coastal Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this evening
before moving offshore. Gusty northwest winds will follow, and rain will
change to snow over the higher terrain of New York and northern New
England tonight.

A large and unusually strong area of high pressure will bring coldest air
of the season so far to much of th central and eastern U.S. Freeze
Warnings and Frost Advisories cover much of the Plains, Upper Midwest, and
Great Lakes tonight. The cold air will spread into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, the Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night, likely
ending the growing season for many locations. Strong north winds and very
dry air behind the front will create critical fire weather conditions from
east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Meanwhile, the front will stall off the Southeast coast, where a
non-tropical low is expected to develop and strengthen well offshore of
North Carolina this weekend. Strong and persistent onshore winds will
cause coastal flooding and beach erosion. These impacts will begin late
this weekend and become significant into early next week from the Delaware
bay to the Carolina coast, especially at high tide. Wind gusts could
exceed 45 mph near the Outer Banks and the Virginia Tidewater. Farther
south, showers and thunderstorms may bring heavy rain and localized
flooding to South Florida on Saturday, and dangerous surf will affect the
Florida and Georgia coasts.

In the West, strong Santa Ana winds and very low humidity will maintain
critical fire weather conditions across Southern California through
Saturday. Coastal highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees will add a heat
risk before the winds east and temperatures fall on Sunday. Elsewhere, a
weak Pacific front will bring light rain to the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday.


Eovino


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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