MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 310114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310113 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-310315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Southern half of Ohio...far northeastern
Kentucky...and far western West Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

Valid 310113Z - 310315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line capable of producing severe wind gusts and
mesovortex tornadoes will continue eastward across the southern half
of Ohio. A local extension of Tornado Watch 76 is warranted, and
trends are being monitored for an additional downstream watch as
well.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from ILN depicts a
north/south-oriented squall line with embedded mesovorticies
tracking eastward at around 40 kt across the southern half of Ohio.
Ahead of the line, the ILN 00Z soundings sampled deep low-level
moisture and modest lapse rates -- contributing to 500 J/kg MLCAPE
(higher farther south). Despite the marginal instability, a 40 kt
low-level jet is favoring a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph
with around 330 0-1 km/effective SRH (per the 00Z sounding and
recent VWP data). Given the well-established cold pool and
moist/high-helicity inflow, severe gusts upwards of 70 mph and
mesovortex tornadoes remain possible in the near-term. Tornado Watch
76 will be extended to account for this near-term severe risk, and
areas farther downstream are being monitored for an additional
downstream watch. However, storms will eventually be approaching the
eastern edge of the warm sector, and limited buoyancy will
eventually limit the severe risk.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39118445 39978413 40308374 40378328 40298208 40038131
            39798108 39238099 38658134 38348164 38338225 38538369
            38748439 39118445 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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