Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 17 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 19 2026

...Well below average temperatures spread across much of central, southern
and eastern U.S. with widespread frost and freezing temperatures from the
Plains to the East through the weekend...

...Nor'easter develops along the Carolina coast this weekend, bringing
potential coastal flooding and beach erosion along portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast into early next week...

...Elevated to Critical fire weather across portions of California into
Sunday...


The strong surface low over southeastern Canada will continue to move
northeastward, as the strong cold front moves offshore, allowing a colder
and drier airmass to spread southeastward behind the boundary. Across the
Great Lakes and higher elevations of the Northeast, lingering cyclonic
flow and colder air aloft will support mixed precipiation through early
Saturday morning. Furthermore, the slow-moving trailing cold front will
continue to move southeastward across Florida through early Sunday,
bringing showers and thunderstorms across the area. As the boundary
interacts with unstable moist air, rainfall rates may increase, leading to
excessive rainfall/localized flooding across portions of southeastern
Florida coast through Sunday.

Meanwhile, the development of a non-tropical coastal low near the Carolina
coast will bring unsettled weather along portions of the Mid-Atlantic
coastline through the weekend into Monday. Strengthening onshore flow
north of the low will bring periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and
hazardous marine conditions to portions of the coastal Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic. The greatest coastal impacts and heavy rainfall will depend
on the storms track, intensity, and proximity to the shoreline. Persistent
onshore winds and elevated wave heights could contribute to coastal
flooding, beach erosion, and hazardous surf.

Across the West, the most notable concerns will remain concentrated over
southern and interior California, where strong offshore flow associated
with an enhanced surface pressure gradient will favor Santa Ana wind
conditions. The combination of low humidity and locally strong wind gusts
will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions through Sunday,
particularly across wind-prone passes, foothills, and adjacent inland
valleys. Elsewhere across western U.S., a frontal disturbance approaching
the Pacific Northwest may produce periods of light showers through early
Saturday, especially across coastal areas and the northern Cascades.
Additional isolated showers may develop across portions of the Southwest
in association with lingering shortwave disturbances through Monday.

A strong surface high pressure will build southeastward behind the cold
front, bringing significant cooler temperatures across central, southern,
and eastern U.S. Highs will drop 15-25 degrees below normal across the
Southern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley and Northeast.
Widespread Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions
of the Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic
through Sunday.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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