ACUS02 KWNS 310617
SWODY2
SPC AC 310615

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the
central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to
spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest...

A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts
of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful
mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to
eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the
afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the
development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly
draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds
will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of
14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher
surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across
much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in
regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble
solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are
likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the
southern Plains by 00z.

Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid
in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial
convective development close to the low across pats of NE and
northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs
suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also
possible given the relatively dry profile.  Additional, likely
elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm
air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail
is the primary threat overnight.

Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional
risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near
sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near
a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and
central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and
capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon
associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some
broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may
allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed
air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and
strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a
risk for large hail and damaging gusts.

Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more
sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to
improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to
develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards,
including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are
possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500
m2/s2) Tuesday night.

Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front
late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and
potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain
regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain
surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could
persist to the end of the period.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025

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