760 
FXUS64 KMRX 170555
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
155 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Showers this morning will linger over the mountains before ending. 
  Snow may mix in over the higher mountain peaks.   
  
- Much cooler and drier air is moving in and the first frost of
  the season will likely occur tonight across portions of the 
  area, with frost possible again Sunday night.

- Dry with a warming trend next week. 
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Following the cold frontal passage last night, we are currently 
seeing drizzle or light showers across parts of the forecast area 
this morning. Anywhere from a trace to just over a tenth of an inch 
accumulation possible. Isolated to scattered northwesterly flow 
activity may persist over the higher terrain of the northern 
plateau, southwest VA, and the Southern Appalachians through the 
morning. Before everything comes to an end, light snow showers may 
mix in over the highest mountain peaks of the Southern Appalachians 
with the coldest temperatures of the morning.

Today may be a shock to the system for some to go from record 
setting temperatures yesterday to highs mostly in the 50s later 
today. Dew points will drop to the 30 to 40 degree range. Later this 
afternoon, northerly winds will mix down and bring gusts up to 
around 25 mph for parts of the area. So prepare for a breezy day at 
times. Tonight may be the coldest night we've seen in quite a while 
with temperatures ranging from the low 30s over the higher terrain 
to upper 30s and low 40s for the central and southern valley. Winds 
are expected to die down tonight, which will provide the ripe 
environment for frost development. Frost is likely for portions 
of the northern plateau, Southern Appalachians, northeast TN, and 
southwest VA. 

Slight improvement in temperatures tomorrow afternoon and frost 
potential into Monday morning, with increasing heights aloft 
following the deep trough rolling out. The rest of the week 
synoptically can be characterized by omega blocking over the CONUS; 
troughing over the coasts and ridging in the middle of the country. 
Dry weather will continue through the rest of the forecast period 
with temperatures eventually rising to a few degrees above normal 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Light rain continues to move through the region over the next
several hours. Uncertain if TAF sites dip to MVFR conditions.
Strong wind field may induce periods of LLWS if calmer winds occur
at surface early this morning, gusty surface winds of 20 to 25 
knots are likely during the late morning through the afternoon 
hours. Skies should gradually clear by late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  43  66  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  39  65  40 /  10   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  40  64  39 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  34  64  35 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


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