300 
FXUS64 KMRX 171834
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Areas of frost are expected tonight into Sunday morning for the Cumberland
  Plateau, northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and the 
  Tennessee/North Carolina mountains. 

- Patchy fog is likely again in the same areas Sunday night into
  Monday morning, followed by a slow warming trend and no rain
  expected through the week. 
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Currently, troughing is centered to our northwest with high pressure 
building in behind the recent frontal boundary. This has and will 
continue to promote brisk northerly to northeasterly winds into the 
evening hours. Tonight, the surface high will settle just to our 
northeast, leading to a decrease in winds and strong radiational 
cooling conditions. Frost development is expected across the 
Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, and in and near the 
Tennessee and north Carolina mountains. On Sunday, troughing will 
merge with a system in the Atlantic. Height rises and light 
northeasterly flow are expected, leading to the start of a warming 
trend and highs back into the 60s for most. Radiational cooling will 
allow for another cool night and patchy fog Sunday night into Monday 
morning, mainly in northeastern areas.

The pattern for Tuesday through Thursday will remain largely 
unchanged with ridging to the west and the Atlantic system to our 
east. Height rises will allow for daytime highs to get back into the 
70s with cool overnight lows continuing due to subsidence from 
continued high pressure. Late in the week, further height rises will 
push daytime highs further into the 70s, but no rain is expected. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Clouds will continue to gradually clear out with primarily VFR
expected for the rest of the day.Strong northerly to northeasterly
winds will continue. Gusts in excess of 20 kts will be common 
with some above 25 kts possible. Some light winds will remain
overnight but with mostly clear conditions and limited fog
potential. Much lighter northeasterly winds and sunny conditions
are expected on Sunday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             44  67  42  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  40  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       40  66  41  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              34  66  36  70 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


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