MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 311026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311025 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-311200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...southeast MS into southern AL and the western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 311025Z - 311200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
couple of hours. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A consolidating line of convection with a few embedded
bowing segments will continue to shift east across southern MS and
southeast LA. This activity is expected to the move across portions
of southern AL into the western FL Panhandle this morning into
midday, maintained by favorable vertical shear and moderate
instability. Recent radar trends have shown periodic intense bows
with line-embedded cells, posing a risk for damaging gusts. This
trend should continue with eastward extent into the MCD area. Storm
mode may limit hail potential, though isolated hail to around 1 inch
diameter is possible. Regional VWP data shows modest 0-1 km shear,
and given some boundary-layer inhibition and poor low-level lapse
rates, tornado potential while non-zero, is expected to remain low.
A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour
or so as the line of convection to the west approaches the eastern
bounds of WW 83 and WW 84.

..Leitman.. 03/31/2025

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30948984 32178811 32098700 31768645 30908642 30098694
            29818843 29888928 30458974 30948984 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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