Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 19 2026 - 12Z Wed Oct 21 2026

...Flash Flooding risk for portions of the Southwest on Monday...

...Nor�easter moving north just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will produce
rain showers along parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast through
Tuesday...

...Low pressure moving southward along the West Coast will bring scattered
showers across parts of California through Tuesday...


A non-tropical low pressure offshore of the Carolinas will continue to
strengthen while slowly moving northward along the western Atlantic. The
system is expected to maintain a broad circulation offshore, with moisture
wrapping around the low, supporting possible showers and thunderstorms
along portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastline through
Wednesday. Persistent onshore flow will be favored by the pressure
gradient between the coastal low and the high pressure farther inland.
Therefore, the strong northeasterly winds will continue to affect coastal
portions of the Mid-Atlantic, particularly from the southern New Jersey
through the Virginia Tidewater and North Carolina Outer Banks. The prolong
onshore flow will bring moderate coastal flooding, dangerous marine
conditions, and beach erosion.

Farther west, an upper-level disturbance and associated areas of low
pressure over eastern Pacific will progress southward along the West
Coast. Increasing ascent ahead of the disturbance, combined with Pacific
moisture and cooling aloft, will support scattered rainfall across
portions of the northern California coast on Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms is expected to spread into central and southern California
by Tuesday. Some showers and thunderstorms may also develop over portions
of the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level disturbance moves
inland through early Wednesday. The greatest potential for locally heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding will be on Monday across southeastern
Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where remnant upper-level energy,
enhanced Pacific moisture, and instability will support scattered
thunderstorms. Across the Southeast, a weak frontal boundary and
persistent easterly flow off the Atlantic will maintain scattered showers
and thunderstorms across portions of the Florida peninsula through
Tuesday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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