Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 20 2026 - 00Z Thu Oct 22 2026

...Nor�easter moving north just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will produce
scattered rain showers off and on along parts of the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast Coast through Wednesday...

...Low pressure moving southward along the West Coast will develop
scattered rain over parts of California through Tuesday and heavier rain
over the area on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies on Wednesday...

Low pressure off the North Carolina coast will linger near the
Mid-Atlantic Coast before moving eastward out over the Atlantic by
Wednesday evening. Moisture circulating around the low will produce rain
off and on over parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast through
Wednesday.

The low will develop and intensify and wobble well off the North Carolina
coast early this week before slowly tracking east and exiting the region
by Thursday. As it strengthens, the storm will likely bring long-duration
coastal impacts to portions of the Mid-Atlantic, especially for the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

Persistent, strong onshore winds will bring moderate coastal flooding,
dangerous marine conditions, and beach erosion, especially during high
tides, from southern New Jersey through the North Carolina coast into
mid-week. The storm is likely to bring wind gusts in excess of 45 mph
across the Outer Banks region and the Virginia Tidewater. Furthermore,
details on the magnitude and location of impacts are still evolving as
conditions deteriorate.  Check weather.gov regularly for the latest
updates.

Elsewhere, a second area of low pressure over the Eastern Pacific will
move southward along the West Coast, bringing scattered rain to parts of
the Pacific Northwest and Northern California coast through Tuesday
morning. On Tuesday, a plume of moisture will stream into California and
the Southwest, creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and the
Central/Southern Rockies on Wednesday through Thursday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies,
and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Lastly, a weak stationary front south of Florida and easterly flow off the
Atlantic will produce scattered rain and embedded thunderstorms over
Florida s eastern coast and the Florida Keys through Wednesday evening.
Moreover, easterly flow off the Gulf will produce rain with embedded
thunderstorms over the southern tip of Texas through Wednesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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