Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 20 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 22 2026

...Nor�easter brings significant impacts to portions of the Mid-Atlantic
Coast this week...

...Excessive rainfall impacts return to the Southwest/Four Corners...


A mid-latitude cyclone stationed well off the Carolina Coast will
intensify as it slowly drifts north over the coming days. Persistent and
strong onshore winds will result in coastal flooding, dangerous marine
conditions and beach erosion, especially at high tide cycles from southern
New Jersey through the North Carolina Coast. Wind gusts in excess of 40
mph are likely along immediate coastal areas, especially across the Outer
Banks region of North Carolina.

Elsewhere, an amplifying upper trough in the East Pacific will tap
tropical moisture as it digs into the Western U.S. this week. This
anomalous moisture will surge northward into the Southwest and Four
Corners region starting Wednesday, when an approaching surface low
pressure system will act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms across
Central/Southern California, where a slight risk (at least 15% chance) of
excessive rainfall is in effect. Moist, very anomalous, southerly flow
into the Four Corners will also pose additional excessive rainfall
concerns. Another slight risk area is in effect for southern Utah/Colorado
into much of Arizona/New Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday before the heavy
rain threat shifts eastward into the Plains heading into the weekend.

Temperatures will be below average in the West given the developing upper
trough pattern. Meanwhile, a building ridge in the Central U.S. will
promote above average to well above average temperatures through this
weekend. Temps in the East remain average to slightly below average over
the next few days thanks to the lingering Nor'easter.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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