MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 021157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021157 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...northeast OK into extreme southwest MO/northwest AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...96...

Valid 021157Z - 021400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95, 96 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado potential may be maximized
across northeast Oklahoma into extreme southwest Missouri/northwest
Arkansas over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shows some propensity for
linear convection to become more supercellular. This activity is
moving across the max STP corridor (effective layer STP around 5-7)
amid strong vertical shear and moderate instability. While some
rotation has been occurring, and even a brief TDS was noted over
Tulsa and Rogers Counties in northeast OK, capping and storm motion
parallel to the surface front is likely limiting the longevity of
stronger/better organized cells within the broader line of
convection. Nevertheless, a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts and
isolated large hail remain possible this morning.

..Leitman.. 04/02/2025

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36889542 37099478 36869430 36399415 36069438 35629512
            35449595 35509663 35979656 36809577 36889542 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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