ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRANS
PECOS TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the
Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys
and into Texas on Friday. The greatest threat for large hail will be
from the Trans Pecos to East Texas.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will move from Ontario into northern Quebec on Friday
with a trailing front stalling from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks to
West Texas. This front will start to accelerate southeast during the
late afternoon/evening as a positively tilted mid-level trough
amplifies and moves south across the Plains. Scattered strong to
severe storms are forecast along this frontal zone Friday
afternoon/evening.

...Trans Pecos to East Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast south of a frontal zone across
central Texas Friday afternoon. As the mid-level trough advances
southward through the Plains, mid-level temperatures will cool and
ascent will overspread this frontal zone. Therefore, as the airmass
becomes uncapped, scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
front. 35 to 40 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for
supercells with a primary hazard of large hail.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front
from Louisiana to western New York on Friday afternoon. The best
flow will be across Kentucky and Ohio and into Pennsylvania and New
York, but heating/destabilization becomes more questionable that far
north. The best overlap of mid-level flow and richer low-level
moisture will be across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. However, cloud
cover associated with an MCS which is expected to be ongoing at the
beginning of the period across Texas and Arkansas will limit heating
and thus destabilization. Better instability will be likely where
heating can occur to the south of the more extensive cloud cover,
but shear/forcing becomes weaker farther south and east. Therefore,
within the broad marginal risk from western New York to Louisiana
there will likely be one or more corridors with a greater threat for
severe storms, but those areas will be mesoscale in nature and
highly dependent on Day 1 convection. Therefore, no higher
probabilities have been added at this time.

..Bentley.. 05/01/2025

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