MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 021609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021609 
MOZ000-ARZ000-021745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Portions of northern Arkansas into southern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 96...97...

Valid 021609Z - 021745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 96, 97 continues.

SUMMARY...An zone of greater tornado potential may develop in
northern Arkansas and southern Missouri over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Storms have remained relatively discrete in western
Arkansas. Two stronger storms are ongoing in west-central and
northwest Arkansas. The northwest Arkansas has shown some
low/mid-level rotation on KSRX and KSGF velocity data. Additionally,
isolated showers have also developed ahead of these storms and could
intensify. This activity will have uninhibited access to warm/moist
air. Temperatures have already risen into the mid/upper 70s F near
and south of these storms along with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F.
Strong low-level shear is evident in area VAD data as well. So long
as storms remain discrete, this region may see an increase in
tornado (possibly strong) potential over the next few hours.

..Wendt.. 04/02/2025

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36219433 36729368 37449136 37389102 36619075 36499088
            35629173 35139261 34929345 34919424 34979444 36219433 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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