Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 21 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 23 2026

...Nor�easter continues to produce significant coastal impacts along
portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast...

...Excessive rainfall impacts return to the Southwest/Four Corners...


A Nor'easter situated well-off the Mid-Atlantic coastline is forecast to
track north and eastward over the next couple of days. In the meantime,
persistent and strong onshore winds will result in coastal flooding,
dangerous marine conditions and beach erosion, especially at high tide
cycles, from southern New Jersey through the North Carolina Coast. Wind
gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible, especially across the Outer Banks
region of North Carolina. Conditions should begin to improve on Thursday.

Elsewhere, an amplifying upper trough in the East Pacific will tap
tropical moisture as it digs into the Western U.S.. This anomalous
moisture will surge northward into the Southwest and Four Corners region
starting today. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will
spread across the Four Corners while, an approaching surface low pressure
system focuses additional storms across Central/Southern California.
Slight risks (at least 15% chance) of excessive rainfall leading to flash
flooding are in effect for portions of Central/Southern California and the
Four Corners today. On Thursday, the flash flooding focus will remain over
the Four Corners, with a newly upgraded outlook to reflect a moderate risk
(at least 40% chance) of excessive rainfall. Some lingering heavy rainfall
is possible over Southern California.

Temperatures will be below average in the West as the upper-trough and
associated cold front swing through. Meanwhile, a building ridge in the
Central U.S. will promote above average to well above average temperatures
through this weekend. Temperatures in the East will remain average to
below average through this weekend as surface high pressure and clear
skies settle in.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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