MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 021857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021856 
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-022030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...West-central Arkansas into east-central Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 97...

Valid 021856Z - 022030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 97 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms are currently semi-discrete across
Arkansas/Missouri. Tornadoes (possibly strong) will remain possible
along with large/very-large hail and isolated severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...Slow and steady heating through cirrus/anvil debris has
allowed MLCAPE to increase to around 1500 J/kg. Storms have shown
some trends in increasing intensity over the past hour or so.
Low-level and deep-layer shear remain strong per regional VAD data.
Local radar velocity data also show some signals of stronger
mesocyclones with some of the storms. Despite shear vectors largely
parallel to the line of convection, storms have so far remained
semi-discrete. So long as this continues, a tornado (potentially
strong) is possible. Large to very-large hail and isolated severe
gusts could also occur. With time, increasing storm interactions and
greater eastward push from the front will promote upscale growth.

..Wendt.. 04/02/2025

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35249419 37129280 38269173 38529092 38449023 37569024
            35249235 34529296 34379375 34549418 34729434 35249419 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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