Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 22 2026 - 00Z Sat Oct 24 2026

...Nor�easter continues to produce coastal impacts along the Eastern
Seaboard; conditions improve tomorrow...

...Excessive rainfall and severe weather impacts California, the
Southwest, and Four Corners...

A Nor'easter situated well-off the Mid-Atlantic coastline continues an
offshore track into the Atlantic. Before the storm pulls further away from
the coastline late tomorrow, strong onshore winds will maintain coastal
flooding conditions, offshore gales, and beach erosion over portions of
the Eastern Seaboard today.

Along the opposite coastline, a strong closed-low with a tap of tropical
moisture is forecast to barrel toward California later today. Radar this
afternoon shows several areas of showers and thunderstorms surging
northward over Coastal California, Desert Southwest, and Four Corners
ahead of this strong system. Scattered to numerous instances of excessive
rainfall area a concern with this activity today and tomorrow, owing to
the tropical connection of this system. Also of note is the potential for
severe weather this afternoon and evening focused over Central Arizona.
The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring storms in this area for hail
greater than 2", a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. Tomorrow, the
focus for severe weather will shift into Southeast Arizona, with all
hazards possible.

Temperature-wise, cool weather will spread across the West over the next
few days as clouds, precipitation, and eventually a cold front overtake
the region.  Meanwhile, an amplified upper-ridge in the Central U.S. will
promote above average to well above average temperatures through this
weekend. Temperatures in the East will meander at and below average
through this weekend as surface high pressure settles in behind the
Nor'easter. In fact, a few areas could see their first frost of the season
as overnight temperatures over the Northeast and New England near freezing
this week.


Asherman/Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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